Towards Enhancing Rainfall Projection using Bias Correction Method : Case Study Egypt

Authors(6) :-H. M. Elmenoufy, Mostafa Morsy, M. M. Eid, A. El Ganzoury, F. M. El-Hussainy, M. M. Abdel Wahab

Climate models are numerical representations of various parts of the Earth's climate system. Due to the limitations of the output of the regional climate models (RCMs), when using the trend in proposed future adaption strategy, it is necessary to apply bias correction before they are used for the different sectors especially water resources research. The bias correction is applied to RegCM simulations which forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios from European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model (ECHAM5) Global Climate Model (GCM). This correction was done against the quality control and homogenized observation dataset based of Climate Research Unit (CRUTS3.24) and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis for 40 years (ERA-40) datasets. The results showed that the biases are not uniformly distributed throughout the year and their magnitudes are regionally dependent. Also, it is obvious that there is a time increasing in rainfall up to 20 mm based on the RegCM4 bias correction from the selected from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate scenarios. Where, the increasing of rainfall reached to 6 mm during the different future three periods until 2100 depending on RCP4.5. Whereas, depending on RCP8.5 scenario the increasing in rainfall will reach to 20 mm up to 2100. On the other hand the rainfall distribution especially in Upper Egypt is larger than in RCP8.5. This increasing in rainfall amount is coincide with the historical and observed rainfall analysis which showed that there is a time increasing in rainfall amount over whole Egypt during the period of 1980 - 2015.

Authors and Affiliations

H. M. Elmenoufy
Environment &Climate changes Research Institute (ECRI), El-Qanatir, Egypt
Mostafa Morsy
Astronomy and Meteorology Department, Faculty of Science, Al Azhar University, 11884, Cairo, Egypt
M. M. Eid
Astronomy and Meteorology Department, Faculty of Science, Al Azhar University, 11884, Cairo, Egypt
A. El Ganzoury
National Water Research Center (NWRC), El-Qanatir. Egypt
F. M. El-Hussainy
Astronomy and Meteorology Department, Faculty of Science, Al Azhar University, 11884, Cairo, Egypt
M. M. Abdel Wahab
Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt

RegCM Regional Climate Model, Bias Correction, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), Egypt.

  1. Ali, S., Li, D.A.N., Congbin, F.U., Yang, Y., East, T., Regional, A., Temperate, C., Asia, E., 2015. Performance of convective parameterization schemes in Asia using RegCM: simulations in three typical regions for the period 1998-2002. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 32, 715-730. Allan, R.J., Haylock, M.R., 1993. Circulation features associated with the winter rainfall decrease in southwestern Australia. J. Clim. 6 (7), 1356-1367
  2. Amor V.M. Ines et al., 2006 Bias correction of daily GCM rainfall for crop simulation studies.agricultural and Forest Meteorology 138: 44-53.
  3. Bao, Y., 2013. Simulations of summer monsoon climate over East Asia with a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) using Tiedtke convective parameterization scheme (CPS). Atmos. Res. 134, 35-44.
  4. Berg, A., Famiglietti, J., Jeffrey, P., Houser, P., 2003. Impact of bias correction to reanalysis products on simulation of North American soil moisture and hydrological fluxes. J. Geophys. Res. 108 (D16), 15.
  5. Bergstrom, S., Carlsson, B., Gardelin, M., Lindstrom, G., Pettersson, A., Rummukainen,M., 2001. Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden-assessments by globalclimate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling. Clim. Res.16 (2), 101-112.
  6. Bhatla, R., Ghosh, S., 2015. Study of Break phase of Indian summer monsoon using different parameterization schemes of RegCM4.3. Int. J. Eart. Atmos. Sci. 2 (3), 109-115.
  7. Christensen, J.H., Boberg, F., Christensen, O.B., Lucas-Picher, P., 2008. On theneed for bias correction of regional climate change projections of tem-perature and precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 (20), Retrieved from
  8. Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., Solmon, F., Mariotti, L., Sylla, M.B., Bi, X., Elguindi, N., Diro, G.T., Nair,V., Giuliani, G., Turuncoglu, U.U., Cozzini, S., Güttler, I., O’Brien, T.A., Tawfik, T.B.,Shalaby, A., Zakey, A.S., Steiner, A.L., Stordal, F., Sloan, L.C., Brankovic, C., 2012. RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains.Clim. Res. 52, 7-29.
  9. Graham, L., Hagemann, S., Jaun, S., Beniston, M., 2007. On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Clim. Change 81, 97-122.
  10. Grell, G.A., 1993. Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon. Weather Rev. 121 (3), 764-787.
  11. Hawkins E, Osborne T M, Ho C K and Challinor, A, J., 2013. Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe Agric. For. Meteorol. 170 19-31.
  12. Ines, A.V.M., Hansen, J.W., 2006. Bias correction of daily GCM rainfall for crop simu-lation studies. Agric. For. Meteorol. 138 (1-4), 44-53,
  13. Kleinn, J., Frei, C., Gurtz, J., Lüthi, D., Vidale, P., Schär, C., 2005. Hydrologic simulations in the Rhine river basin driven by a regional climate model. J.Geophys. Res. 110, 18.
  14. Klutse, N.A.B., Sylla, M.B., Diallo, I., Sarr, A., Dosio, A., Diedhiou, A., Kamga, A.,Lamptey, B., Ali, A., Gbobaniyi, E.O., Owusu, K., Lennard, C., Hewitson, B.,Nikulin, G., Panitz, H.-J., Büchner, M., 2015. Daily characteristics of West African summer monsoon precipitation in CORDEX simulations. Theor. Appl.Climatol., 1-18,
  15. Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J. &Meehl, G. A.,2010. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. J. Clim. 23, 2739-2758.
  16. Leander, R., Buishand, A., 2006. Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows. J. Hydrol. 332, 487-496.
  17. Lenderink, G., Buishand, A., van Duersen, W., 2007. Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach.Hydrol. Earth. Syst. Sci. 11, 1145-1159.
  18. McGuf?e and Henderson-Sellers, 2014.The Climate Modelling Primer, 4th Edition Book supplied direct from Wiley 2007: The Physical Science Basis. ContributionofWorking Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  19. Onyutha, C., Tabari, H., Rutkowska, A., Nyeko-Ogiramoi, P., & Willems, P.,2016. Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods for climate change rainfall projections over the Lake Victoria basin considering CMIP3 and CMIP5.Journal of Hydro-Environment Research, 12, 31-45.
  20. Piani, C., Haerter, J.O., Coppola, E., 2010. Statistical bias correction for daily precipi-tation in regional climate models over Europe. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 99 (1-2),187-192,
  21. Shabalova, M.V., van Duersen, W., Buishand, T., 2003. Assessing future discharge of the river Rhine using regional climate model integrations and a hydrological model. Clim. Res. 23, 233-246.
  22. Sinha, P., Mohanty, U.C., Kar, S.C., Dash, S.K., Kumari, S., 2013. Sensitivity of the GCM driven summer monsoon simulations to cumulus parameterization schemes in nested RegCM3. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 112, 285-306.
  23. Srinivas, C.V., Hariprasad, D., BhaskarRao, D.V., Anjaneyulu, Y., Baskaran, R., Venkatraman, B., 2013. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon regional climate using advanced research WRF model. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 1195-1210.
  24. Taraphdar, S., Mukhopadhyay, P., Goswami, B.N., 2010. Predictability of Indian summer monsoon weather during active and break phases using a high resolution regional model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, 1-6.
  25. Tebaldi, C., and R. Knutti., 2007. The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections.Philos. Trans. Roy.Soc.,365A,2053-2075.
  26. Teutschbein, C., Seibert, J., 2010. Regional climate models for hydrological impactstudies at the catchment scale: a review of recent modeling strategies. Geogr.Compass 4, 834-860.
  27. Wilby, R.L. and Wigley, T.M.L., 1998. Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progress in Physical Geography.
  28. Wilby, R.L., 1997. Nonstationarity in daily precipitation series: implications for GCM downscaling using atmospheric circulation indices.
  29. Wood, A.W., Leung, L.R., Sridhar, V. and Lettenmaier, D.P., 2002. Hydrological implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climatic Change, 62, 189-216.

Publication Details

Published in : Volume 3 | Issue 6 | September-October 2017
Date of Publication : 2017-10-31
License:  This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Page(s) : 187-194
Manuscript Number : IJSRSET173639
Publisher : Technoscience Academy

Print ISSN : 2395-1990, Online ISSN : 2394-4099

Cite This Article :

H. M. Elmenoufy, Mostafa Morsy, M. M. Eid, A. El Ganzoury, F. M. El-Hussainy, M. M. Abdel Wahab, " Towards Enhancing Rainfall Projection using Bias Correction Method : Case Study Egypt, International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology(IJSRSET), Print ISSN : 2395-1990, Online ISSN : 2394-4099, Volume 3, Issue 6, pp.187-194, September-October-2017.
Journal URL :

Article Preview