Towards Enhancing Rainfall Projection using Bias Correction Method : Case Study Egypt

Authors

  • H. M. Elmenoufy  Environment &Climate changes Research Institute (ECRI), El-Qanatir, Egypt
  • Mostafa Morsy  Astronomy and Meteorology Department, Faculty of Science, Al Azhar University, 11884, Cairo, Egypt
  • M. M. Eid  Astronomy and Meteorology Department, Faculty of Science, Al Azhar University, 11884, Cairo, Egypt
  • A. El Ganzoury  National Water Research Center (NWRC), El-Qanatir. Egypt
  • F. M. El-Hussainy  Astronomy and Meteorology Department, Faculty of Science, Al Azhar University, 11884, Cairo, Egypt
  • M. M. Abdel Wahab  Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt

Keywords:

RegCM Regional Climate Model, Bias Correction, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), Egypt.

Abstract

Climate models are numerical representations of various parts of the Earth's climate system. Due to the limitations of the output of the regional climate models (RCMs), when using the trend in proposed future adaption strategy, it is necessary to apply bias correction before they are used for the different sectors especially water resources research. The bias correction is applied to RegCM simulations which forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios from European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model (ECHAM5) Global Climate Model (GCM). This correction was done against the quality control and homogenized observation dataset based of Climate Research Unit (CRUTS3.24) and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis for 40 years (ERA-40) datasets. The results showed that the biases are not uniformly distributed throughout the year and their magnitudes are regionally dependent. Also, it is obvious that there is a time increasing in rainfall up to 20 mm based on the RegCM4 bias correction from the selected from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate scenarios. Where, the increasing of rainfall reached to 6 mm during the different future three periods until 2100 depending on RCP4.5. Whereas, depending on RCP8.5 scenario the increasing in rainfall will reach to 20 mm up to 2100. On the other hand the rainfall distribution especially in Upper Egypt is larger than in RCP8.5. This increasing in rainfall amount is coincide with the historical and observed rainfall analysis which showed that there is a time increasing in rainfall amount over whole Egypt during the period of 1980 - 2015.

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International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology

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Published

2017-10-31

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Volume 3, Issue 6, September-October-2017

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Research Articles

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[1]
H. M. Elmenoufy, Mostafa Morsy, M. M. Eid, A. El Ganzoury, F. M. El-Hussainy, M. M. Abdel Wahab, " Towards Enhancing Rainfall Projection using Bias Correction Method : Case Study Egypt, International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology(IJSRSET), Print ISSN : 2395-1990, Online ISSN : 2394-4099, Volume 3, Issue 6, pp.187-194, September-October-2017.