Train Time Delay Prediction for High-speed Train Dispatching Based on Spatio Temporal Graph Convolutional Network
Keywords:
Heterogeneous graph neural network, GraphSAGE, Railway network, Delay evolution; Train interactions.Abstract
Railway operations involve different types of entities (stations, trains, etc.), making the existing graph/network models with homogenous nodes (i.e., the same kind of nodes) incapable of capturing the interactions between the entities. This paper aims to develop a heterogeneous graph neural network (HetGNN) model, which can address different types of nodes (i.e., heterogeneous nodes), to investigate the train delay evolution on railway networks. To this end, a graph architecture combining the HetGNN model and the GraphSAGE homogeneous GNN (HomoGNN), called SAGE-Het, is proposed. The aim is to capture the interactions between trains, trains and stations, and stations and other stations on delay evolution based on different edges. In contrast to the traditional methods that require the inputs to have constant dimensions (e.g., in rectangular or grid-like arrays) or only allow homogeneous nodes in the graph, SAGE-Het allows for flexible inputs and heterogeneous nodes. The data from two sub-networks of the China railway network, namely the Guangzhou South network (GZS-Net) and the Changsha South network (CSS-Net), are applied to test the performance and robustness of the proposed SAGE-Het model. The experimental results show that SAGE-Het exhibits better performance than the existing delay prediction methods and some advanced HetGNNs used for other prediction tasks; the predictive performances of SAGE-Het under different prediction time horizons (10/20/30 min ahead) all outperform other baseline methods; the accuracies are over 90% under the permissible 3-minute errors for the three prediction time horizons. Specifically, the influences of train interactions on delay propagation are investigated based on the proposed model. The results show that train interactions become subtle when the train headways increase (e.g., when the train headways are over 20 min, canceling the edges does not decrease the prediction performance). This finding directly contributes to decision-making in the situation where conflict-resolution or train-canceling actions are needed.
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